This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality - as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown - people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.
This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality - as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown - people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.
Economic Model Predictive Control (EMPC) is a control strategy that moves process operation away from the steady-state paradigm toward a potentially time-varying operating strategy to improve process...
Preface.- Acknowledgments.- List of Contributors.- Rational Choice Theory: A Forum for Exchange of Ideas between the Hard and Social Sciences in Predictive Behavioral Modeling.- The SOMA Terror...
1. Geophysics.- Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models.- Evaluation of forecasts.- The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill.- An improved formula to describe error...
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