This study reexamines the concept of gradualism. Written off as an unworkable concept after the Vietnam War, gradualism worked in NATO's recently completed Operation Allied Force. Since it is reasonable to believe that national decision makers and military commanders may have to conduct another graduated air operation in the future, this study examines what conditions must be fulfilled or avoided to maximize the chances for a successful graduated air campaign. Since most contemporary strategists do not fully understand the components of gradualism, the study begins by deriving from the writings of Thomas C. Schelling, perhaps the best-known theorist of gradualism, a definition and theoretical propositions for gradualism. The conclusion from this is that bargaining and communication between the two adversaries, a well-coordinated effort between the military and diplomatic instruments of power, and an intensive and extensive understanding of one's adversary are all key facets of gradualism. Following the theory is a theoretical critique of gradualism, comparing it to the principles of Clausewitz, to the ideas of several airpower theorists, including John Boyd and John Warden's theories of strategic paralysis, and to the theoretical and empirical lessons of the psychological impact of air attack. This suggests that the key tenets of gradualism are explicitly contrary to the theoretical underpinnings of the way western nations conduct warfare. The second part of the critique analyzes the application of graduated airpower during Operation Rolling Thunder, 1965-68, as well as exploring two other graduated campaigns: the Egyptian-Israeli War of Attrition, 1969-70 and NATO's Operation Deny Flight/Deliberate Force, 1992-95.
This study reexamines the concept of gradualism. Written off as an unworkable concept after the Vietnam War, gradualism worked in NATO's recently completed Operation Allied Force. Since it is reasonable to believe that national decision makers and military commanders may have to conduct another graduated air operation in the future, this study examines what conditions must be fulfilled or avoided to maximize the chances for a successful graduated air campaign. Since most contemporary strategists do not fully understand the components of gradualism, the study begins by deriving from the writings of Thomas C. Schelling, perhaps the best-known theorist of gradualism, a definition and theoretical propositions for gradualism. The conclusion from this is that bargaining and communication between the two adversaries, a well-coordinated effort between the military and diplomatic instruments of power, and an intensive and extensive understanding of one's adversary are all key facets of gradualism. Following the theory is a theoretical critique of gradualism, comparing it to the principles of Clausewitz, to the ideas of several airpower theorists, including John Boyd and John Warden's theories of strategic paralysis, and to the theoretical and empirical lessons of the psychological impact of air attack. This suggests that the key tenets of gradualism are explicitly contrary to the theoretical underpinnings of the way western nations conduct warfare. The second part of the critique analyzes the application of graduated airpower during Operation Rolling Thunder, 1965-68, as well as exploring two other graduated campaigns: the Egyptian-Israeli War of Attrition, 1969-70 and NATO's Operation Deny Flight/Deliberate Force, 1992-95.
This monograph answers the question of whether operational air commanders have the necessary doctrinal tools to plan for effective airpower employment in gradually escalated, coercive warfare. It...
The nine contributors to this volume study the rapid development of airpower during the twentieth century as well as the methodological problems involved in assessing such change.
To a great extent, the history of airpower theory is the history of a futile search for the strategic "knockout punch." From Douhet to LeMay, airpower zealots have argued that the proper application...
The battle between British and German air forces in the summer and early fall of 1940 was the first major campaign fought entirely by air. It engendered interest among airmen around the world,...
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