The objectives of this research paper are (1) to conduct an analysis of the current political reality in Saudi Arabia and identify critical uncertainties that will shape the political landscape within the country over the next 20 years, (2) with those uncertainties in mind, use trend and systems analysis from recent policy decisions, reform initiatives, and international events to show how those uncertainties could lead to an emerging reality for the country that includes a robust insurgency, (3) show why this evolution, though not certain, is indeed plausible, provided certain trends are not reversed, (4) identify key markers that, depending on certain decisions, could either reverse or accelerate events, and (5) show the implications of this scenario, not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the region, the United States, and the rest of the world.
The objectives of this research paper are (1) to conduct an analysis of the current political reality in Saudi Arabia and identify critical uncertainties that will shape the political landscape within the country over the next 20 years, (2) with those uncertainties in mind, use trend and systems analysis from recent policy decisions, reform initiatives, and international events to show how those uncertainties could lead to an emerging reality for the country that includes a robust insurgency, (3) show why this evolution, though not certain, is indeed plausible, provided certain trends are not reversed, (4) identify key markers that, depending on certain decisions, could either reverse or accelerate events, and (5) show the implications of this scenario, not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the region, the United States, and the rest of the world.
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