We work in the setting of time series of financial returns. Our starting point are the GARCH models, which are very common in practice. We introduce the possibility of having crashes in such GARCH models. A crash will be modeled by drawing innovations from a distribution with much mass on extremely negative events, while in normal times the innovations will be drawn from a normal distribution. The probability of a crash is modeled to be time dependent, depending on the past of the observed time series and/or exogenous variables. The aim is a splitting of risk into normal risk coming mainly from the GARCH dynamic and extreme event risk coming from the modeled crashes. For the ARCH case we formulate (quasi) maximum likelihood estimators and can derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates. On the practical side we look for the outcome of estimating models with genuine GARCH dynamic and compare the result to classical GARCH models. We apply the models to Value at Risk estimation and see that in comparison to the classical models many of ours seem to work better although we chose the crash distributions quite heuristically.
GARCH-like Models with Dynamic Crash Probabilities
RRP:
$109.21
$88.00
Description
We work in the setting of time series of financial returns. Our starting point are the GARCH models, which are very common in practice. We introduce the possibility of having crashes in such GARCH models. A crash will be modeled by drawing innovations from a distribution with much mass on extremely negative events, while in normal times the innovations will be drawn from a normal distribution. The probability of a crash is modeled to be time dependent, depending on the past of the observed time series and/or exogenous variables. The aim is a splitting of risk into normal risk coming mainly from the GARCH dynamic and extreme event risk coming from the modeled crashes. For the ARCH case we formulate (quasi) maximum likelihood estimators and can derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates. On the practical side we look for the outcome of estimating models with genuine GARCH dynamic and compare the result to classical GARCH models. We apply the models to Value at Risk estimation and see that in comparison to the classical models many of ours seem to work better although we chose the crash distributions quite heuristically.
Provides a comprehensive and updated study of GARCH models and their applications in finance, covering new developments in the discipline This book provides a comprehensive and systematic...
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2005 im Fachbereich BWL - Allgemeines, Note: 1,3, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Veranstaltung: Angewandte Zeitreihenanalyse, 33 Quellen im...
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and...
Discover your next great read at BookLoop, Australiand online bookstore offering a vast selection of titles across various genres and interests. Whether you're curious about what's trending or searching for graphic novels that captivate, thrilling crime and mystery fiction, or exhilarating action and adventure stories, our curated collections have something for every reader. Delve into imaginative fantasy worlds or explore the realms of science fiction that challenge the boundaries of reality. Fans of contemporary narratives will find compelling stories in our contemporary fiction section. Embark on epic journeys with our fantasy and science fiction titles,
Shop Trending Books and New Releases
Explore our new releases for the most recent additions in romance books, fantasy books, graphic novels, crime and mystery books, science fiction books as well as biographies, cookbooks, self help books, tarot cards, fortunetelling and much more. With titles covering current trends, booktok and bookstagram recommendations, and emerging authors, BookLoop remains your go-to local australian bookstore for buying books online across all book genres.
Shop Best Books By Collection
Stay updated with the literary world by browsing our trending books, featuring the latest bestsellers and critically acclaimed works. Explore titles from popular brands like Minecraft, Pokemon, Star Wars, Bluey, Lonely Planet, ABIA award winners, Peppa Pig, and our specialised collection of ADHD books. At BookLoop, we are committed to providing a diverse and enriching reading experience for all.
Sign In
your cart
Your cart is empty
Menu
Search
PRE-SALES
If you have any questions before making a purchase chat with our online operators to get more information.
