Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).
Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).
Does Prayer Matter? A Discussion on Prayer is a book of questions. Asking questions usually receives answers, and that is what this book attempts to do by offering answers to such questions as Does...
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2010 im Fachbereich Politik - Region: USA, Note: 1,3, Rheinland-Pfälzische Technische Universität Kaiserslautern-Landau, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: 1. Yes, We can? Die...
The Southern Baptist Convention's Conservative Resurgence officially began in June of 1979. That summer the SBC elected Adrian Rogers as its President. Chuck Kelley notes that Rogers' election...
This volume of essays represents the first systematic attempt to explore the use of the past in the making of citizenship and immigration policy in Australia and New Zealand. Focussing on immigration...
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