Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is a hazard to the Air Force for both air and ground operations. Forecasting CG lightning is a necessary and extremely important requirement for Air Force meteorologists and forecasters. The 15th Operational Weather Squadron requested a forecast tool capable of predicting CG lightning within a 25 and 10 nautical mile radius of the 13 military locations in their area of responsibility. To fulfill their request, forecast decision tools were created using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) data analysis program. Four decision trees were produced for each location using the period of record from March through September, 1993 to 2002. CART compared the upper air stability indices and surface data at 12-hour intervals with CG lightning data occurring within the next 12 hours to determine prediction rules. Data from 2003 were used as independent verification of the decision trees.
Developing a Forecast Tool for Cloud-To-Ground Lightning in the North Central and Northeast United States
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Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is a hazard to the Air Force for both air and ground operations. Forecasting CG lightning is a necessary and extremely important requirement for Air Force meteorologists and forecasters. The 15th Operational Weather Squadron requested a forecast tool capable of predicting CG lightning within a 25 and 10 nautical mile radius of the 13 military locations in their area of responsibility. To fulfill their request, forecast decision tools were created using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) data analysis program. Four decision trees were produced for each location using the period of record from March through September, 1993 to 2002. CART compared the upper air stability indices and surface data at 12-hour intervals with CG lightning data occurring within the next 12 hours to determine prediction rules. Data from 2003 were used as independent verification of the decision trees.
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and...
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it.This work is in the "public domain in the United States of...
Military installations, airports, sporting events, and other facilities curtail operations when cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is present. The National Lightning Detection Network records...
Air Force operations are directly impacted by weather on a daily basis. Erroneous forecasts negatively impact mission readiness and consequently cost the government time, in terms of wasted...
Originally published in 1891, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the history and science of weather forecasting in the United States. This volume covers the development of weather...
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