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2026 统一台湾:冲击,影响,和风险

叶其泉

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08 January 2024
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美国及联盟事实上无法阻止,延迟,或逆转中国的统一台湾的行动。在2026年启动这一行动,对中国是妥当的时机。

美国联盟也不能不对中国的行动作出反应。不对此做出反应就是政治自杀。错误的应对方案同样也带来自杀结果的结果。

美国的应对方案理论上有事前方案和事后方案两个组共6种工具包。包括事前和谈方案,事前阻遏方案;事后全面政治制裁;全面政治制裁加经济制裁;政治制裁加靖绥军事方案,和全面整体战争方案。

总体上很难看到美国能从应对中国的行动中获益,美国(联盟)选择它的应对方案的出发点就是止损。阻止中国快速地扩张政治收益,地缘收益,和经济收益。但是对美国集团最理想的应对方案往往没有实施的机会。

比较容易实施的方案集中于事后反应方案组中。全面政治制裁应当是各应对方案的基础配置。经济制裁方案较军事方案的风险级别低,易于试探边界。但是缺乏军事行动的任何方案都难以安抚集团内部的民意,难以阻吓其它的反叛力量,难以有效阻止中国的扩张步伐。

军事反应方案确实能增加政治得分,但是其风险是显而易见的。如果中国与美国集团双方的政客能有效地将军事行动约束在'靖绥军事方案'之内,那么通过军事对峙,让美欧洲集团民意认识到'无法通过军事行动战胜敌人'后,再启动全面的谈判,双方达成妥协的机率就相当大。

但是军事行动一旦开启,滑向高强度冲突甚至全面整体战争的机率相当大。复杂的应对方案将带来更复杂的结局。一旦进入中高响应级别的战争,美国退出东亚的概率非常高。更高的战争响应级别,可能带来更多变数。包括欧洲全面性的边界游动进程的启动,加速,和加剧;俄罗斯向L1线推进;欧洲现在权力秩序的解构与重组;涉及欧洲核区及周边区域的大混乱;战后选择G2, G3, 或G4体制的不确定,等等。

在中国的'防守型进攻策略'面前,美国集团战胜中国(集团)的机率相当渺小。但中国(集团)虽然有解构欧洲秩序和美国主导的帝国秩序的潜力,但并没有从国家层面战胜美国的能力与机会。中国可能也没有利用这些潜力的主动性。

美国并非完全没有战胜中国的机会。突破帝国秩序的基本规则,成功实施事前阻遏方案是其一。但是其终点的不可控,是阻止这一方案实施的更大阻力。

早期快速地启动核战争,和全面整体战争失利后启动核战争,都会给美国集团带来军事胜利的可能性。一旦西方的民意认定这是一种可能性时,西方政客极难阻止核装置应于战争。这一事实注定中国必须主要地承担阻止核战争的责任。构成对西方的全面核威慑能力是中国不得不承担的责任。

在复杂的应对过程中,欧洲对中美冲突的态度,将对中国将形成巨大压力。同时也将对整个欧洲的前景带来巨大的不确定性。

美国应对方案的复杂性,将增加世界局势的不确定性。日本,韩国,菲律宾,将在中国与美国的军事冲突的不同阶段,发挥不同的作用并带来不同的影响。

中国的哲学逻辑与美国反应方案的互动,将影响全面战争后形成G2,G3,或者G4体制的趋势。

台湾是这一系列程序中最无力的参与方。印度不具备调动中国的政治资源与军事资源的能力。越南有调动中国政治资源与军事资源的能力。越南也可能会显示这个能力,但越南大概率不会介入中美的军事冲突。

G2已经是一种存在的事实。2026年中国的统一行动,将G2秩序的正式运行。如果美国不愿意选择

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$41.00
In Stock: Ships in 3-5 Days
In Stock: Ships in 7-9 Days
Hurry up! Current stock:

2026 统一台湾:冲击,影响,和风险

$41.00

Description

美国及联盟事实上无法阻止,延迟,或逆转中国的统一台湾的行动。在2026年启动这一行动,对中国是妥当的时机。

美国联盟也不能不对中国的行动作出反应。不对此做出反应就是政治自杀。错误的应对方案同样也带来自杀结果的结果。

美国的应对方案理论上有事前方案和事后方案两个组共6种工具包。包括事前和谈方案,事前阻遏方案;事后全面政治制裁;全面政治制裁加经济制裁;政治制裁加靖绥军事方案,和全面整体战争方案。

总体上很难看到美国能从应对中国的行动中获益,美国(联盟)选择它的应对方案的出发点就是止损。阻止中国快速地扩张政治收益,地缘收益,和经济收益。但是对美国集团最理想的应对方案往往没有实施的机会。

比较容易实施的方案集中于事后反应方案组中。全面政治制裁应当是各应对方案的基础配置。经济制裁方案较军事方案的风险级别低,易于试探边界。但是缺乏军事行动的任何方案都难以安抚集团内部的民意,难以阻吓其它的反叛力量,难以有效阻止中国的扩张步伐。

军事反应方案确实能增加政治得分,但是其风险是显而易见的。如果中国与美国集团双方的政客能有效地将军事行动约束在'靖绥军事方案'之内,那么通过军事对峙,让美欧洲集团民意认识到'无法通过军事行动战胜敌人'后,再启动全面的谈判,双方达成妥协的机率就相当大。

但是军事行动一旦开启,滑向高强度冲突甚至全面整体战争的机率相当大。复杂的应对方案将带来更复杂的结局。一旦进入中高响应级别的战争,美国退出东亚的概率非常高。更高的战争响应级别,可能带来更多变数。包括欧洲全面性的边界游动进程的启动,加速,和加剧;俄罗斯向L1线推进;欧洲现在权力秩序的解构与重组;涉及欧洲核区及周边区域的大混乱;战后选择G2, G3, 或G4体制的不确定,等等。

在中国的'防守型进攻策略'面前,美国集团战胜中国(集团)的机率相当渺小。但中国(集团)虽然有解构欧洲秩序和美国主导的帝国秩序的潜力,但并没有从国家层面战胜美国的能力与机会。中国可能也没有利用这些潜力的主动性。

美国并非完全没有战胜中国的机会。突破帝国秩序的基本规则,成功实施事前阻遏方案是其一。但是其终点的不可控,是阻止这一方案实施的更大阻力。

早期快速地启动核战争,和全面整体战争失利后启动核战争,都会给美国集团带来军事胜利的可能性。一旦西方的民意认定这是一种可能性时,西方政客极难阻止核装置应于战争。这一事实注定中国必须主要地承担阻止核战争的责任。构成对西方的全面核威慑能力是中国不得不承担的责任。

在复杂的应对过程中,欧洲对中美冲突的态度,将对中国将形成巨大压力。同时也将对整个欧洲的前景带来巨大的不确定性。

美国应对方案的复杂性,将增加世界局势的不确定性。日本,韩国,菲律宾,将在中国与美国的军事冲突的不同阶段,发挥不同的作用并带来不同的影响。

中国的哲学逻辑与美国反应方案的互动,将影响全面战争后形成G2,G3,或者G4体制的趋势。

台湾是这一系列程序中最无力的参与方。印度不具备调动中国的政治资源与军事资源的能力。越南有调动中国政治资源与军事资源的能力。越南也可能会显示这个能力,但越南大概率不会介入中美的军事冲突。

G2已经是一种存在的事实。2026年中国的统一行动,将G2秩序的正式运行。如果美国不愿意选择

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